Before Russia conquered Central Asia, the states of the region were formed according to the regional (Khorezm, Transoxiana, Ferghana) rather than the national principle. In a truncated form, this situation persisted under the Russian Empire. In Soviet times, national-state demarcation was carried out; it was by no means ideal, but the Soviet borders nevertheless remained after the collapse of the USSR. Now the situation seems stable, and the prospect of changing borders appears unlikely. However, certain demographic (migration from south to north), religious (the advance of radical Islam), internal (power struggles within new states among various ruling clans), and geopolitical processes make it possible to consider that under certain circumstances, interstate borders could change. At the same time, the general direction of these processes suggests two possible scenarios: the formation of a “Greater Uzbekistan” or, in the event of internal instability in Uzbekistan, the reestablishment of traditional state entities based on the territorial principle, possibly with the addition of new ones. These processes are unlikely to affect Kazakhstan (except for the two Syrdarya regions) and northern Kyrgyzstan, but they will undoubtedly influence the situation in these states, including the prospects for their relations with Russia.
Central Asian states, changing borders, history, modernity, prospects