Confrontational Polycentrism in the Middle East: Cluster Model of Regional Security

Krylov D.S.

Abstract

At the present stage, the Middle East represents a unique regional subsystem characterized by a high level of fragmentation, conflict, and the absence of a stable security architecture. In the context of the formation of a polycentric world order, strategic balance in the region is maintained not through stable formal alliances and blocs, but through dynamic cluster configurations formed around and with the participation of regional and global actors (Russia, the USA, China, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, and the UAE).
The article proposes a typology of Middle Eastern clusters based on five key parameters: strategic vector, type of governance, legitimacy, ideological and value content, and mobilization model. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of crossinteractions between clusters, including cooperation, rivalry, and hybrid forms of engagement with non-state actors. It was found that clusters function not as stable blocs, but as situational coalitions with a high degree of hybridity, asymmetry, and transnational reach. Their interaction is often dual in nature: competition is combined with episodic cooperation, and conflicts are used as a tool for geopolitical positioning. It is concluded that in the absence of a unified security architecture in the Middle East, cluster structures become key carriers of regional order, reflecting the strategic priorities and contradictions of actors in the Middle East.

Keywords

Middle East, polycentrism, regional security, clusters, proxies, conflicts, regional order, international relations

DOI: 10.31249/j.2949-2408.2025.03.03

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